The Best Long Shot Bet in Horse Racing Handicapping

Figure out why the horse you circled is now a long shot if it has indeed proven itself capable of winning a race such as today’s race. This is the single most important clue to finding a good bet on a horse going off at long odds. Since horses go in and out of form and also respond to training and equipment changes, any horse that once managed to do what is being asked of it today should be considered a threat especially when the favorite is vulnerable.

What you are trying to find out is if that horse can improve today and also if the favorite is a false favorite. The goal of playing the ponies is to make money, a profit. Once you have identified horses that have proven they can win at the distance, surface, and level, find out if the horse who is the likely favorite in the race has done the same thing.

But when a longshot does win, somebody cashes tickets on that winner. So the real secret to making money on longshots is finding a person who can spot a good longshot bet in the racing form or program and then make money from the bet.

Next, look at each one of these racers and see if it has ever won at the distance, on the same surface, and at the same class level or higher. Handicapping horse races for profit and trying to make money betting on races is hard enough without going after those horses who seem so unlikely to win.

It does happen sometimes, but before you declare that person a genius, find out if he or she is ahead on his or her bets. Now circle each horse that qualifies. If you have the ability to watch the pools and spot inside money it is also helpful to know if the barn is betting that longshot.

While most people would agree, after a few trips to the horse races, that long shot bets are where the money is, however, after losing money trying to win a few, most will agree they are also difficult to hit. Now comes the tricky part. Is it coming back from a long layoff? Does its form seem to have tapered off?

Every day, at race tracks all over the world, people are surprised when horses win races even though the horse has done it before under the same conditions. Do you ever wonder who had the horse and if it is all the people who just play their lucky number? Does it ever occur to you that someone actually looked at the racing program and picked that horse to win for a reason?


There is no one single formula for finding good long shot bets, but there are a few clues. Before the races, go through the racing form and find every horse that is in the morning line at 10-1 or higher.

It is amazing how many times you will find a race where the favorite has not done what is being asked of it but another horse, going off at long odds, has done it

Golf Handicap & Course Management by Kevin Phillips

In Jim’s case there is only one hole on the golf course that he is expected to par and that is stroke index 18 the easiest hole on the course. NOW !!

. Just to put you in the picture The 13th Hole at our golf course is a 368yd par 4 with a stroke index of 2. It is for me I said but what’s your par? He looked at me with a vacant stare so I proceeded to put him out of his misery.

And therein lies the problem most mid to high handicap golfers have, they are not playing their own game they are trying to play scratch golf. Manage your own game better by thinking correctly and your course management will improve along with your enjoyment of the game. I can never make a par there he says, it always messes up my scorecard along with a few other holes I could mention.

I finished off by saying to Jim think about your approach to the golf course now! Standing on par 3’s that now become par 4’s .. BIRDIE ….

Your par for that hole is 5 not 4, with your handicap you can take a 5 and still not lose anything in relation to your handicap. This is where good course management and thinking comes in to play.

What you should do is make out a personal scorecard relative to your handicap. A par 4 on the course where you have a stroke means 3 shots to reach the green and 2 putts. Now if you stood on that tee and said to yourself it’s a par 5 how would you feel then? I am sure you would be more relaxed and think that’s not hard I can do that, and that is exactly how you should approach every hole you play.

This great game of golf is hard enough without putting undue pressure on yourself. Look at each hole on your golf course in a different light. I hope you get my drift here because it’s an important part of managing your game.

I know it goes against the grain but it will make each hole seem easier and allow you to play with more confidence and relax. How much easier is that on the mind? With a nod of thanks and a gleam in his eye Jim wandered off to the bar to join his friends and have a well-earned drink.

I knew Jim to have a mid to high handicap so I asked him exactly what it was he was playing off these days, I play off a 17 handicap he said. It’s a Sunday morning in the Pro Shop at my Golf Club and I am handing out scorecards for the weekly golf competition, when in walks Jim, a club member bemoaning his luck on the golf course. So every time you stand on that tee and think about making 4 you are making it harder for yourself. So I asked Jim what do you think your par is for that hole? It’s a par 4 Kevin you know it is, he replied. Draw up your own personal scorecard.. Instead of getting out the driver on these tough longer holes and then messing up because you feel you must try to get a par, take clubs you are more confident with. Now you have your new way of thinking with regard to par you will be surprised at how much easier it is to play each individual golf hole. I asked him what’s wrong and he replied that they should dig up the 13th hole. If your golf course has a par of 70 and your handicap is 15 then your par for the course is 85. Think this way and you will be pleasantly surprised how many times you make an actual par, which in your case means ..

Handicappers: Hawaii Senate seat remains safe for Democrats, for now – CNN Political Ticker

Brian Schatz, and former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannenmann. Gov. He becomes the fifth Democratic senator so far this cycle to announce they would not run for re-election in 2012.

But the Republicans do have some advantages, starting with Linda Lingle. The Republican former governor is still quite popular in the state and if she were the GOP nominee, the contest could be competitive.

The Democrats have a 53 to 47 majority in the Senate and will have to defend 23 seats next November (21 Democrats and two independents who caucus with the party), while the GOP only has to defend 10 seats.

But as of now, both the Rothenberg Political Report and the Cook Political Report, two of the leading non-partisan political handicappers, are characterizing the seat as safe for the Democrats.

But Hawaii is considered a tough pickup for the Republicans. Daniel Akaka of Hawaii announced he would not run for re-election next year, two of the top non-partisan political handicappers say that as of now, the seat remains safe for the Democrats.

Akaka, who’s served in the Senate since 1990, announced Wednesday that he would not run for a fourth full term in 2012. Democrats enjoy a large advantage in voter registration, and whoever is the party’s Senate nominee will appear on the ballot next November alongside President Barack Obama, a hometown hero.

“Until the candidate fields on both sides become clear, the race will stay in the Solid Democratic column, but a Lingle candidacy would force a move to a more competitive rating,” says Cook Report Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy.. Ed Case, newly-elected Lt.

“Lingle’s candidacy could force Democrats to spend money in the state, but for now, this seat remains Safe for the Democrats,” says the Rothenberg Report.

Talking about competitive, a number of Democrats may make a bid for the nomination. Among those mentioned are congresswomen Mazie Hirono and Colleen Hanabusa, former Rep. A divisive late primary next year could hurt the Democrats in the general election.

Follow Paul Steinhauser on Twitter: @PsteinhauserCNN

(CNN) – One day after Democratic Sen